Good evening! I hope everyone was able to enjoy this chilly, but sunny, day across southeast NC.
A modestly unsettled weather pattern will affect the coastal Carolinas through the Thanksgiving holiday and into the weekend.
I kept us all green on the stoplights panel, but honestly could go with yellows for the coastal areas (mainly along and east of US-17) given the chances for rain Tuesday afternoon and again on Thanksgiving. So the panel tonight is something of a soft-call. I don't foresee any significant travel issues for Wednesday or Friday anywhere within the coastal Carolinas.
(Click/tap on each graphic to enlarge.)
While high pressure tries to maintain control of our weather, a coastal trough will develop and this will bring the potential for some rain along the coast. Meanwhile, a cold front will approach and move through the region overnight Tuesday night / early Wednesday morning. This will be a remarkably unremarkable frontal passage, but there may be some areas of light rain and fog, which may persist into Wednesday morning. This front will push offshore Wednesday.... leaving us with dry and pleasant conditions Wednesday afternoon.
A wave of low pressure is modeled to form along the frontal boundary offshore by Thanksgiving. With overrunning moisture from the south associated with this system, combined with high pressure wedging to our north (and a subsequent northeast flow)... I expect that areas along and east of I-95 will see lots of clouds, chilly temperatures, and maybe some spotty light rain. The highest rain chances will be near the coast once again. As you head inland, conditions should be dry, and there may be some more sunshine, but it's still going to be chilly thanks to that northeast flow.
All of this shown here may look semi-interesting, but as can be seen on the next graphic, rainfall amounts are expected to be quite low through 7 PM on Thanksgiving, with the highest numbers along the coast.
That all pulls away Friday and dry conditions prevail into the weekend. The next front, a much stronger one, looks to move through by the end of next weekend-(ish)... and models point to a dramatic cooldown behind this front.
Here's my official forecast for southeast NC and northeast SC. Have a great evening and thanks for viewing!