Good evening Coastal Carolinas! We have a very unremarkable weather pattern for the next several days... actually, right through next week!
Our stoplights are all green across the boards. It's really just a temperature forecast.
The ONLY interesting "thing" is a tiny ribbon of moisture that may bring a low overcast for a few hours over the coastal areas. The image below is a forecast sounding for Southport, N.C., for this evening. In fact, by the time you read this post, this might be a thing of the past.
A dry cold front will whisk across the region late Saturday evening. A southwesterly flow ahead of the front will bring mild temperatures to southeast NC... maybe even pushing 70 in some spots.
The front will move off the coast Sunday with cooler temperatures in its wake. Temperatures Sunday afternoon will struggle to reach 60, and low temperatures when you set off for work and school Monday will be in the lower 30s.
So... for tonight... I am going with variably cloudy skies for the overnight, with lows generally in the mid 30s. Some of the typically cooler spots may dip a little cooler, and of course along the coast, a bit milder... especially in areas that have more cloudiness.
Saturday looks like a real winner across southeast NC and northeast SC, with lots of sunshine and highs in the upper 60s... again, some areas may touch 70 tomorrow afternoon. Get out and enjoy it ®!
Saturday night looks variably cloudy once again with that frontal passage. The cold advection won't really begin to push in until Sunday morning, so I'm going with minimum temperatures in the mid 40s. Sunday will again feature lots of sunshine, but much cooler temperatures with highs around 60.
My extended forecast is high-and-dry. We'll see a warming trend through the week, with highs around 70 by Thursday. Notice - I did put a 10% chance of precipitation down for Wednesday as there is some indication in the modeling that there may be some atmospheric "convergence" along the coast. That's a soft call at this point and in reality there just may be a bit more cloudiness along the coast than anything else.
Click/tap on the graphics to enlarge.
LONG TERM: Weather patterns are going to be set up that cold air is going to be hard to come by for the eastern two-thirds of the country. If you're looking for snow and cold, you'll have to go well north into Canada for that. The Climate Prediction Center graphics show that temperatures should run above normal and precipitation below normal through December 8.
Explaining these graphics: These graphics show the PERCENT CHANCE that temperatures and precipitation will be above or below normal. They do NOT show "how much" above or below normal, just the percent possibility... i.e., a 60% chance of above-normal temperatures, or an 80% chance of below-normal precipitation. Click or tap on each graphic to enlarge.
Ok folks, that's it for tonight's update. I hope you have a wonderful weekend! Be safe if you're out traveling. If you have any questions or comments, hit me up on my Facebook page!
Good evening! I hope everyone was able to enjoy this chilly, but sunny, day across southeast NC.
A modestly unsettled weather pattern will affect the coastal Carolinas through the Thanksgiving holiday and into the weekend.
I kept us all green on the stoplights panel, but honestly could go with yellows for the coastal areas (mainly along and east of US-17) given the chances for rain Tuesday afternoon and again on Thanksgiving. So the panel tonight is something of a soft-call. I don't foresee any significant travel issues for Wednesday or Friday anywhere within the coastal Carolinas.
(Click/tap on each graphic to enlarge.)
While high pressure tries to maintain control of our weather, a coastal trough will develop and this will bring the potential for some rain along the coast. Meanwhile, a cold front will approach and move through the region overnight Tuesday night / early Wednesday morning. This will be a remarkably unremarkable frontal passage, but there may be some areas of light rain and fog, which may persist into Wednesday morning. This front will push offshore Wednesday.... leaving us with dry and pleasant conditions Wednesday afternoon.
A wave of low pressure is modeled to form along the frontal boundary offshore by Thanksgiving. With overrunning moisture from the south associated with this system, combined with high pressure wedging to our north (and a subsequent northeast flow)... I expect that areas along and east of I-95 will see lots of clouds, chilly temperatures, and maybe some spotty light rain. The highest rain chances will be near the coast once again. As you head inland, conditions should be dry, and there may be some more sunshine, but it's still going to be chilly thanks to that northeast flow.
All of this shown here may look semi-interesting, but as can be seen on the next graphic, rainfall amounts are expected to be quite low through 7 PM on Thanksgiving, with the highest numbers along the coast.
That all pulls away Friday and dry conditions prevail into the weekend. The next front, a much stronger one, looks to move through by the end of next weekend-(ish)... and models point to a dramatic cooldown behind this front.
Here's my official forecast for southeast NC and northeast SC. Have a great evening and thanks for viewing!