The week in weather: Monday October 15-Friday October 19, 2018.
**NOTE -- Click/tap on the images to enlarge.**
Cold, autumn air currently sweeping across the central and southern U.S. will continue pressing east as a strong cold front presses eastward over the southern Plains and Mississippi Valley. High temperatures on Monday will hover in the mid 40s to low 50s across most of Texas (with exception to the Texas Gulf Coast). These temperatures will be nearly 30 degrees below average. By Tuesday, as the cold front exits the East Coast and stretches from the Southeast to the western Gulf of Mexico, cooler temperatures will also settle from the Northeast, Ohio Valley to the western portions of the Southeast.
Locally... high pressure will continue to hang on through Monday bringing mostly sunny skies with temperatures into the lower 80s. Southerly breezes will set up ahead of a strong cold front which should sag slowly through the area during the day Tuesday. Ahead of the front, temperatures should reach the lower to middle 80s.
Our chart for Tuesday afternoon (above) shows the front essentially straddling the NC/SC state line. This is an approximation and temperatures will be highly dependent on where the front positions itself. You can see that the model is showing a temperature in the upper 60s north of the front, with upper 80s to even lower 90s south of the boundary.
Don't expect a lot in the way of showers or storms ahead of or with the frontal passage. I'm expecting scattered coverage of showers, primarily during the day Tuesday and Tuesday night. No washouts, no widespread / significant rainfall.
By Wednesday our model shows the front well to our south with colder air pushing in on northerly winds. I believe we'll still see a few scattered showers around with a good deal of cloudiness during the day. Temperatures will be a few degrees either side of 70 Wednesday afternoon, which is about 5 degrees below seasonal normal values.
Speaking of temperatures below seasonal normal values, take a look at Thursday....
Models are showing afternoon high temperatures running 10 to 15 degrees below seasonal norms. The normal high for Thursday is 75 degrees. The European and GFS models are both indicating temps in the lower 60s Thursday afternoon... but I think with full sunshine a better target would be the mid to upper 60s for highs. Either way, these temps are more typical for mid-November.
Headed out to the bus stop on Monday, expect partly cloudy skies with temperatures in
the mid 60s. No threat for precipitation.
My forecasts are, therefore, as follows:
Remainder of Tonight: Variably cloudy skies with light winds. Lows in the mid 60s.
Monday: Mostly sunny and warm, on southerly winds. Highs in the mid 80s.
Monday Night: Partly cloudy conditions once again, with lows in the upper 60s.
Tuesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers possible. Highs in the mid 80s (highly dependent on timing of frontal passage).
Tuesday Night: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in the mid 50s.
Wednesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers once again. Much cooler with highs around 70.
Wednesday Night: Clearing skies with lows in the upper 40s.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Thursday Night: Clear and cool with lows in the mid 40s.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 70.
I hope you all have a good week, and thanks for viewing!